2021 QIPCO 1,000 Guineas Trends

By Gavin Beech
 |  3 mins
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2021 QIPCO 1,000 Guineas Trends

2021 1,000 Guineas details

Date: Sunday May 2nd (3.40pm)

Course: Newmarket (Rowley Mile)

Status: Group 1

Distance: 1 mile

Age: 3yo

Weights: 9st 0lbs

Prizemoney: £375,000

1,000 Guineas Trends

  • 10 of the last 12 winners were NOT sent off favourite
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least four previous runs
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had already run at least once over a mile
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had not won a race that season
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 106+
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had already scored at Group level
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run on the Rowley Mile

Key Trials for the 1,000 Guineas

Modern-day Guineas hopefuls often head straight to Newmarket without a prep run that season but nearly all Guineas winners have shown high class form as a juvenile.

Newmarket’s Fillies’ Mile is a key pointer to the following season’s Classics and fillies that run well in that Group 1 contest also demonstrate that they are able to handle the undulations of the Rowley Mile.

Only Minding has gone on from winning the Fillies’ Mile to Guineas glory in recent years but Rhododendron (2016 winner) and Laurens (2017 winner) both went on to finish second in the Classic the following season. Hermosa finished second in 2018 but went one better back on the Rowley Mile in the Guineas.

The Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (7f) is the most prestigious juvenile race for fillies run in Ireland and is usually won by a filly with a bright future. Love, Minding and Sky Lantern have all done the Moyglare/Guineas double in recent years.

For those that do take in a run as a 3-year-old before the Guineas, then a high-profile pitstop like the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (known to many as the Fred Darling Stakes) at Newbury is a likely option, although its winners don’t have a great recent record in the Classic. Alcohol Free bids to improve that record in 2021.

The Nell Gwyn Stakes, a 7f contest at Newmarket’s Craven meeting is another stepping stone to the 1,000 Guineas. Billesdon Brook finished fourth in the 2018 Nell Gwyn before going on to Guineas glory. The last filly to do the Nell Gwyn/Guineas double was Speciosa in 2006.

Trainer Trends

Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have quite as outstanding a record in the 1,000 Guineas as he does in the colt’s equivalent, but the master of Ballydoyle has still landed the prize six times, making him the winning-most trainer in the modern era by some distance.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race twice but not since Russian Rhythm defied a major market drift back in 2003.

Richard Hannon Jnr followed in his father’s footsteps by winning the race in 2018 with outsider Billesdon Brook.

The race has gone to a French raider twice since 2010, most recently in 2014 when Andre Fabre landed the prize with Miss France. That is Fabre’s only 1,000 Guineas success but he has a strong record with his British raiders on the whole so any representation from his yard needs respecting.

Jockey Trends

Ryan Moore has done particularly well in this race in the last decade, winning it four times, three of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien.

Wayne Lordan, another pilot with a strong connection to Ballydoyle, has won two of the last four editions at 14/1 (Hermosa) and 9/1 (Winter) – confirming that there is such depth to the Ballydoyle team that they often win the race with one of the lesser fancied runners.

Frankie Dettori has won the race three times, most recently in 2011.

Who Fits The 1,000 Guineas Trends Best In 2021?

The 2021 1,000 Guineas sets a real poser for punters because ante post betting hotpot Santa Barbara, a general 6/4 chance at the time of writing, fits very few of the trends. She won a Curragh maiden in the autumn but hasn’t been seen since so she has no experience of top-class competition.

Clearly, there is a lot of confidence behind her at Ballydoyle, but favourites have a poor record in this race so she looks one to take on from a punting point of view.

Fillies’ Mile winner Pretty Gorgeous is much more appealing in all departments. She has sufficient experience, is proven at the top level and has proved that she can perform to her best on the Rowley Mile – something that shouldn’t be underestimated.

Alcohol Free is another with Rowley Mile form having won the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last term and she showed that she had trained on by winning the Fred Darling at Newbury. The one trend that she falls down on is that she has yet to race over a mile and stamina is the concern for this filly.

Sacred, winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes on reappearance, also has stamina to prove and she might struggle to uphold that form with Saffron Beach who promises to be better suited by the extra furlong.

The latter is already a Group 3 winner having won the Oh So Sharp Stakes and is clearly at home on the Rowley Mile (all three starts at Newmarket).

Recent 1,000 Guineas winners

2018Billesdon Brook66/1
2016Minding 11/10 Favourite
2014Miss France7/1
2013Sky Lantern9/1
2012Homecoming Queen25/1
2011Blue Bunting16/1
2010Special Duty9/2 Favourite

*The 2020 renewal was staged in June due to Covid-19

A veteran of two decades in the sports journalism industry, Gavin Beech is a very experienced horse racing writer, sports betting content producer and tipster for the likes of MailOnline, Gambling.com and the Racing Post. Not restricted to racing, he also writes about football.

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