2022 World Cup Top Goalscorer Betting Odds

By Matthew Glazier
 |  3 mins
8E3DFB6F-93D4-478C-99D9-112C2BB6C04E  Fact Checked by Sean O'Neill
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2022 World Cup Top Goalscorer Betting Odds

One of the most popular World Cup outright betting markets is the Golden Boot. All the top soccer betting sites offer customers the chance to wager on the soccer player who is going to score the most goals at the tournament. 

Wednesday’s semi-final between France and Morocco will not only have a huge influence on who will lift the World Cup, but it is also likely to point us in the direction of who will be this year’s Golden Boot winner. The standings are currently tied, with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe both on five goals apiece. 

Messi and Mbappe Neck and Neck in Golden Boot Race

Prior to Tuesday’s game between Argentina and Croatia, Mbappe was trading at odds of -333 (3/10) on betting sites to collect the award. However, after another Messi-inspired display, where he added another goal and an assist to his tally, Mbappe’s price has drifted out to -138 (8/11). 

The Moroccan defence have been notoriously hard to break down in this year’s tournament, with the only goal they have conceded being an own goal. Messi backers will be hoping they can restrict Mbappe and his strike partner Olivier Giroud to few chances on Wednesday evening. Giroud trails the leading duo by one goal, and with potentially two games left to play can’t be discounted. 

One thing that isn’t in Giroud’s favor is the number of assists to his name, which is currently zero. Should there be a tie, the player with the highest number of assists will determine the winner. Messi’s three assists are what currently breaks the tie with Kylian Mbappe, who has provided two in the tournament so far. With such fine margins likely to determine who soccer betting sites pay out on, it is likely to go down to the wire and make for great viewing. 

World Cup Soccer Golden Boot Betting Trends

Harry Kane was one of the favorites for the golden boot during the 2018 World Cup, although there have been a spate of recent winners who were available at a big price. James Rodriguez was available at 50/1 on soccer betting apps, before bagging six goals for Colombia four years previously. There were also big-priced winners in 2010 when we had that four-way tie.

If you are betting each-way on the World Cup Golden Boot market, you are looking for players at big prices who can make the frame. It’s generally the case that a runner-up will need to be finding the net three or four times during the tournament, with players from a wide range of countries open to consideration.

For example, Denis Cheryshev of Russia was able to match the totals posted by Kylian Mbappe, Cristiano Ronaldo, Antoine Griezmann and Romelu Lukaku at the 2018 World Cup. You need to establish the players who have strong track records at international level, and of course the ones that are going to be selected.

How to Back Winners on the World Cup Golden Boot Market

You need to understand that this betting market can be won during the group stage of a World Cup. This is where the strongest teams will have their easiest fixtures. It’s where hat-tricks can be scored, and that’s in stark contrast to the knockout phase of the tournament, where games can be notoriously tight and cagey.

It therefore pays to study the draw and look at the sides who might score the most goals during the group phase. You can then identify the personnel within those teams and bet on the attacking players who are going to rack up goals. If your chosen player's country qualifies from the group, they will then have some additional games to add to their tally.

You can choose to go down the each-way route or alternatively, have a wager on a selection of players against the field. There’s also the chance to bet on a revised market when the World Cup gets underway, and wager on a player who is making the right impression in front of goal. 


As former Head of Marketing at Bet365, Matthew Glazier has a wealth of experience in the betting industry. He continues to provide dynamic content for a range of websites and specialises particularly in football and golf, all the while supporting his beloved Tranmere Rovers.

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