2021 Cazoo Derby Betting Trends

By Gavin Beech
 |  4 mins
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2021 Cazoo Derby Betting Trends

2021 Cazoo Derby details

  • Date: Saturday June 5 (4.30pm)
  • Course: Epsom
  • Status: Group 1
  • Distance: 1m 4f
  • Age: 3yo
  • Weights: 9st 0lbs (3lb allowance for fillies)
  • Prize fund: £1,125,000 (£637,988 to the winner)
  • Live on: ITV and RacingTV

Cazoo Derby Ten-Year Trends

  • 10/10 had at least three previous runs on the Flat
  • 10/10 had NOT run at Epsom previously
  • 10/10 had run at least once that season
  • 9/10 Derby winners sired by an English or Irish Derby winner (Golden Horn the exception)
  • 9/10 were rated at least 108
  • 9/10 had already won a Group race
  • 9/10 had already won at least two Flat races
  • 9/10 ran within the last five weeks
  • 9/10 were drawn in stall 7 or higher
  • 8/10 had run at least once over 10f or further
  • 7/10 were NOT sent off favourite on the day (no winning favourite since 2015)

Key Trials for the Cazoo Derby

The 2,000 Guineas has long been regarded as one of the most important pointers to the Derby at Epsom, indeed three of the last ten Derby winners, most recently Masar in 2018, ran in the 2,000 Guineas.

However, the Newmarket race hasn’t been attracting as many top-class middle-distance prospects in recent years. None of the first three home in the 2021 edition are bred to stay beyond ten furlongs.

Clues can be found at Chester’s May meeting where the Chester Vase can produce a horse capable of hitting the heights at Epsom, like Ruler Of The World in 2013. 2017 Derby winner Wings Of Eagles was runner-up in the Chester race before causing a 40/1 shock in the Epsom showpiece. 2019 Chester Vase winner Sir Dragonet was sent off favourite at Epsom but could do no better than fifth position on the big day.

Lingfield’s Derby trial has served up just one Epsom winner in the last decade, Anthony Van Dyck in 2019.

York’s Dante Stakes has also been responsible for a solitary Derby hero, Golden Horn in 2015. Workforce (2010) is the only horse to have been beaten in the York trial before going on to win the Derby.

Harzand (2016) is the only Ballysax Stakes winner to follow up at Epsom in the last decade, although 2021 Ballysax hero Bolshoi Ballet will be looking to improve that statistic.

Trainer Trends

Aidan O’Brien is the dominant Epsom Derby trainer of the modern era. The Ballydoyle maestro has saddled the winner on eight occasions since 2001. His first Derby winner, Galileo, has sired four of the last eight derby winners.

Godolphin’s royal blue silks hadn’t been carried to victory at Epsom since Lammtarra in 1995 before Masar provided trainer Charlie Appleby with a first Derby success in 2018.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race five times, most recently with Workforce in 2010. Workforce still holds the record for the fastest winning Derby time – 2m 31.33s.

John Gosden has landed the prize twice, most recently with Golden Horn in 2015, while the likes of William Haggas (Shaamit), Jim Bolger (New Approach), Marcus Tregoning (Sir Percy) and Michael Bell (Motivator) have all tasted success in the world-famous race.

Jockey Trends

Derby winning rides have been pretty well spread in recent years. Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori are the only two current pilots to have won the race twice.

Aidan O’Brien’s last three winners have not been first-string on jockey bookings, which provided winning opportunities for Padraig Beggy (2017), Seamie Heffernan (2019) and Emmet McNamara (2020).

Ryan Moore tends to be on board the Ballydoyle first string but that hasn’t guaranteed success, with Saxon Warrior (4/5) and Sir Dragonet (11/4) both expensive failures for Moore since 2018.

Moore is very likely to partner the bookmakers favourite, Bolshoi Ballet, in this year's renewal.

Who Fits The Cazoo Derby Trends Best In 2021?

The 2021 Cazoo Derby ante post betting market is dominated by Bolshoi Ballet who followed up his Ballysax win with a bloodless 6-length success in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial at Leopardstown.

That contest doesn’t have a great recent record of producing Derby winners but the manner of Bolshoi Ballet’s performance marks him down as the standout contender. He fits all the key trends and looks an obvious winner at this stage, although there are two notes of caution; the recent record of favourites in the race is poor, while a low draw would also be cause for some concern.

Stablemate High Definition would need to replicate Workforce and become only the second horse to have been beaten in the Dante Stakes and go on to strike at Epsom, so he looks up against it for all that the step up in trip looks sure to help.

Mohaafeth fits many of the trends although he lacks success in a Group race. However, he was so impressive in a Newmarket Listed contest over ten furlongs that he has to be on anyone’s Derby shortlist. He’s also a son of Frankel, who has yet to sire a Derby or Oaks winner.

Lack of a Group race success is also a trends issue for the exciting John Leeper, who is a single-figure price for Epsom after his Listed success at Newmarket. He is also by Frankel, but he’s out of Oaks winner Snow Fairy.

Dante Stakes winner Hurricane Lane is another son of Frankel with claims although he goes to Epsom with less experience under his belt than many, having only run three times.

Stamina certainly won’t be an issue for Youth Spirit, who stayed on strongly to land the Chester Vase. He is by Camelot, the 2012 Derby winner, is rated 111 and has five runs under his belt, including two this term.

He looks a lot more solid a Derby proposition than his ante-post price of 20/1 suggests and rates fair each-way value given his profile. His trainer, Andrew Balding, would also be keen to add this race to his burgeoning CV, having failed with favourite Kameko in 2020.

Recent Epsom Derby winners

Year Winner Odds
2020 Serpentine 25/1
2019 Anthony Van Dyck 13/2
2018 Masar 16/1
2017 Wings of Eagles 40/1
2016 Harzand 13/2
2015 Golden Horn 13/8 fav
A veteran of two decades in the sports journalism industry, Gavin Beech is a very experienced horse racing writer, sports betting content producer and tipster for the likes of MailOnline, Gambling.com and the Racing Post. Not restricted to racing, he also writes about football.

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