2021 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends
By
Gavin Beech
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3 mins
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2021 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe - Race Details
- Date and Time: Sunday, October 3, 3.05pm
- Live on: ITV and Sky Sports Racing
- Course: Longchamp (Paris)
- Status: Group 1
- Distance: 1m4f
- Age: 3yo+
- Prize fund: £4,464,286 (£2,550,893 to winner)
2021 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe bookmaker odds (odds subject to change)
5-2 Tarnawa, 11-4 Adayar, 5 Snowfall, 6 Hurricane Lane, 10 Chrono Genesis, 14 Teona, 20 Deep Bond, Love, 25 Alenquer, Raabihah, Sealiway, 40 Baby Rider, 50 Broome, Bubble Gift, Mojo Star, 66 Torqator Tasso
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Ten-Year Trends
- 10/10 had previously won at Group 1 level
- 10/10 had run at least three times that season
- 10/10 had won at least once over the Arc distance (1m4f)
- 9/10 had won at least one race that season
- 9/10 were aged three or four
- 8/10 were NOT sent off favourite on the day
- 7/10 were drawn in stall 6 or lower
- 6/10 had at least one previous run at Longchamp under their belt
- 6/10 were a filly or a mare
- 5/10 were trained in France
Key Trials for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the pinnacle of the horse racing Flat calendar and is contested by the finest middle-distance horses on the planet.
Three-year-old’s get a 6lb allowance from their elders so it’s race that is often targeted by the pick of the Classic generation, even more so the fillies, who also get the sex allowance.
Any classic winner (specifically a Derby or Oaks) that has been able to carry their form into the second half of the season would be an Arc candidate, especially if they are proven on easy ground, which are often the prevailing conditions at Longchamp in October.
Don’t be put off by horses that have been beaten in the race before; Sottsass and Waldgeist, winners in 2019 and 2020, had both been beaten in the race the previous season.
The Prix Vermeille, a Group 1 contest on Arc trials day, and the Irish Champion Stakes, are noteworthy races in terms of throwing up live Arc contenders, as is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot, a race which was won in emphatic style by Godolphin’s English derby winner Adayar in 2021.
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Trainer Trends
French legend Andre Fabre has won the race a remarkable eight times, more than any other trainer, most recently with Waldgeist in 2019. However, Fabre doesn’t have a contender for the 2021 edition.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race twice, most recently with Found in 2016, and he looks set to saddle at least two live contenders this time around, notably Snowfall who is the choice of Ryan Moore.
Charlie Appleby has yet to win the race but the Godolphin powerhouse have enjoyed success in the race with Sakhee (2001) and Marienbard (2002).
Jockey Trends
No jockey has won the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe more than Frankie Dettori (6) although the Italian has never teamed up successfully with trainer Aidan O’Brien. Dettori bids to change that record aboard Love who would have a big chance if back to something like her best.
Christophe Soumillon, who rides major fancy Tarnawa, has won the race twice, both times for HH Aga Khan IV, whose colours he will be carrying aboard Tarnawa.
Godolphin riders William Buick (Adayar) and James Doyle (Hurricane Lane) are still to taste success although Doyle did come close aboard runner-up Sea Of Class in 2018.
Who Fits The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends Best In 2021?
*It’s advisable to wait until after the draw has been made given the significance of a low stalls position but we don’t have that information to hand at the time of writing.
Tarnawa is strongly fancied by many to extend the good recent record of fillies in the race but she’s only run twice this term, which is short of the number of most recent winners.
It is rare that Godolphin head to Longchamp with two horses with such outstanding chances but trainer Charlie Appleby has an embarrassment of riches thanks to derby and King George hero Adayar, and St Leger winner Hurricane Lane.
Adayar could be an absolute monster and it's encouraging for his backers that he's the choice of stable jockey William Buick, but ground conditions could prove key because Hurricane Lane is well served by some cut in the ground. An unsettled Paris forecast just swings things in his favour, especially as he’s a bigger price. Hurricane Lane also has the advantage of having experienced the Longchamp track and his six-length demolition job in the Grand Prix de Paris marked him down as a huge Arc player. He was a class apart in the St Leger at Doncaster and although this is tougher, his class and versatility should ensure he goes extremely well, providing he doesn't get draw in the car park.
Recommended bet: Hurricane Lane (each-way) at 6/1
Last Ten Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners
- 2020 Sottsass (trainer: J-C Rouget, jockey: Cristian Demuro)
- 2019 Waldgeist (trainer: A Fabre, jockey : Pierre-Charles Boudot)
- 2018 Enable (trainer: John Gosden, jockey: Frankie Dettori)
- 2017 Enable (trainer: John Gosden, jockey: Frankie Dettori)
- 2016 Found (trainer: A P O'Brien, jockey: Ryan Moore)
- 2015 Golden Horn (trainer: John Gosden, jockey: Frankie Dettori)
- 2014 Treve (trainer: Mme Christiane Head, jockey: Thierry Jarnet)
- 2013 Treve (trainer: Mme Christiane Head, jockey: Thierry Jarnet)
- 2012 Solemia (trainer: C Laffon-Parias, jockey: Olivier Peslier)
- 2011 Danedream (trainer: P Schiergen, jockey: Andrasch Starke)
A veteran of two decades in the sports journalism industry, Gavin Beech is a very experienced horse racing writer, sports betting content producer and tipster for the likes of MailOnline, Gambling.com and the Racing Post. Not restricted to racing, he also writes about football.
