2021 Cazoo St Leger Stakes Trends
By
Gavin Beech
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3 mins
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2021 Cazoo St Leger Stakes - Race Details
- Date and Time: Saturday September 11, 3.35pm
- Live on: ITV and Sky Sports Racing
- Course: Doncaster
- Status: Group 1
- Distance: 1m 6f, 100yds
- Age: 3yo
- Weights: Colts 9st 1lb, fillies 8st 12lb
- Prize fund: £700,000 (£421,355 to the winner)
2021 Cazzo St Leger Stakes bookmaker odds: 4/6 Hurricane Lane, 5 High Definition, 7 Ottoman Empire, 15/2 Mojo Star, 14 Youth Spirit, 16 Sir Lucan, 20 Interpretation, The Mediterranean, 28 Save A Forest, 40 Scope, 50 Fernando Vichi, King Of The Castle, 80 Carlisle Bay.
Cazoo St Leger Stakes Ten-Year Trends
- 10/10 winners had already won at least two races on the Flat
- 10/10 winners had already run at least three times that season
- 9/10 winners had been placed at least on their final run before Doncaster
- 9/10 winners were colts
- 8/10 winners were officially rated 110+
- 8/10 winners were sent off single-figure odds
- 7/10 had previously won in Group company
- 6/10 winner have been 4/1 or shorter
Key Trials for the Cazoo St Leger Stakes
Modern-day St Leger winners tend not to be horses that have already shown their hand over staying trips. Improving 3-year-olds that have proved they stay a mile-and-a half, are the ones to focus on.
York’s Great Voltigeur Stakes has been a useful pointer in recent years, with Milan, Rule of Law, Lucarno, and Logician all completing the Voltigeur/St Leger double since the turn of the century. During that time, eight St Leger winners had taken part in the York contest en route.
The 2021 Great Voltigeur was won by a horse that isn’t eligible to run at Doncaster but several of those in behind Yibir will take their chance.
The St Leger is a Group 1 contest so any horse that has already run well in top-level contest, especially races like the derby and the Irish derby. 2018 winner Kew Gardens went to Doncaster with a Group 1 race already in the bag that season having won the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp which is, coincidentally, the race that this year’s favourite Hurricane Lane won so handsomely when last seen.
Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes is only Group 3 in status but it has been won by some top-class horses and the likes of Sixties Icon and Conduit have taken that contest before going on to Leger glory. Ottoman Emperor is bidding to follow in their footsteps in 2021.
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Trainer Trends
Aidan O’Brien is the winning-most modern-day St Leger trainer with six victories to his name, the most recent of which was Kew Gardens in 2018. Shantou (1996) was the first of John Gosden’s five St Leger Stakes wins although the Newmarket trainer isn’t represented in 2021.
Tim Easterby (2002) is the only northern-based trainer to win the race in recent times but Newmarket-based trainers have done particularly well, with the likes of Saeed bin Suroor, Jeremy Noseda, Roger Varian and Sir Michael Stoute all supplementing John Gosden’s victories.
Jockey Trends
No modern-day rider has won the race more times than Frankie Dettori who is aiming for a seventh St Leger Stakes win in 2021. Ryan Moore has won two of the last four renewals but it looks likely that he’ll be staying in Ireland where he’ll be riding St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes.
William Buick, who rides 2021 St Leger favourite Hurricane Lane, and Andrea Atzeni have both won the famous race twice in the last decade.
Stallion Stats
These are the stallions with the winning-most St Leger Stakes offspring: Galileo (3 Wins) Montjeu (3 Wins) Kingmambo (2 Wins) Sadlers Wells (2 Wins)
Who Fits The Cazoo St Leger Stakes Trends Best In 2021?
Many people expect this year’s St Leger Stakes to be a coronation for Hurricane Lane and there is no doubt that his rivals need to step up if the Godolphin representative runs to the same level as he did when running away with the Grand Prix de Paris.
However, he’s going to be very cramped odds, he isn't guaranteed to see out this longer trip and layers will take solace from the fact that even a great like Shergar got beaten in this race.
Mojo Star, one of only two horses ever to have finished in front of the market leader having finished a place in front of him in the derby at Epsom, is the big form danger to Hurricane Lane.
However, Richard Hannon’s colt has only won once in five starts, which is a negative on the trends.
Ottoman Emperor, who had a few of his Leger rivals behind when winning the Gordon Stakes, is on an upward curve and could very easily find another jolt of improvement.
The progressive Johnny Murtagh-trained colt fits all of the above key trends and looks likely to go off at single-figure odds (was 40/1 prior to his Goodwood win) so looks the obvious trends each-way play.
Last Ten Cazoo St Leger Stakes Winners
- 2020 Galileo Chrome 4/1 (Trained by Joseph O'Brien)
- 2019 Logician 5/6F (John Gosden)
- 2018 Kew Gardens 3/1 (Aidan O'Brien)
- 2017 Capri 3/1F (Aidan O'Brien)
- 2016 Harbour Law 22/1 (Laura Mongan)
- 2015 Simple Verse 8/1 (Ralph Beckett)
- 2014 Kingston Hill 9/4F (Roger Varian)
- 2013 Leading Light 7/2F (Aidan O'Brien)
- 2012 Encke 25/1 (Mahmood Al Zarooni)
- 2011 Masked Marvel 15/2 (John Gosden)
A veteran of two decades in the sports journalism industry, Gavin Beech is a very experienced horse racing writer, sports betting content producer and tipster for the likes of MailOnline, Gambling.com and the Racing Post. Not restricted to racing, he also writes about football.
