Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2023 Trends

By Jessica Lamb  | 

Jan 27th, 2023 03:35 PM  |  3 mins

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2023 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Were not top weight - just one made the first four
• Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations
• Had not run more than eight times in the last 12 months
• Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as 'galloping'
• Had run in either a Grade 1 or 2 race previously
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had won at least one chase
• Last ran at least 39 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Carried no more than 11st 6lb (exception Le Prezien, 11st 8lbs)
• Had not won more than three chases (12-year-old Croco Bay won four)
• Did not win last time out, though the last four winners did finish in the first three (winner was Chosen Mate). However, 7/10 had not even won that season.
• Had run at least twice that season (Croco Bay)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were NOT sent off favourite on the day (six of the last ten winners 14/1+)
• Had run at Cheltenham before - four winning, three running in a previous Grand Annual (Le Prezien, Croco Bay, Next Sensation)

Key Trials in the last 10 years

Winners of this Cheltenham Festival handicap chase come from all sorts of places, and generally haven't won in that season, so there are no reliable trials to follow. This is because connections tend not to want to show their hand to the assessor.

In the last six years the trends have altered dramatically, moving away from winners having recent runs to instead lining up at the Festival after upwards of three months off. However, last year's winner Global Citizen had run in February.

Handicap chases run at Cheltenham in October, November or December might be a good place to start your research. And don't forget, look back at the last Grand Annual (Croco Bay, winner in 2019, was running in the race for the fourth time), although no horse has won the race more than once since Dulwich in 1976.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Trainer Trends

• Named after his father Johnny, Nicky Henderson loves this race. In the last 10 years he's saddled 16 runners, five placing.
• However, Paul Nicholls is the trainer to follow – he’s won this race four times in all, more than any other trainer, including twice in the last 10 years.
• Trainers based in Ireland have their fair share of good fortune in this race two, winning four of the last 10.

Jockey Trends

• In true Cheltenham Festival handicap style, this isn’t a race that tends to be dominated by a small group of riders.
• Only semi-retired Davy Russell has won the Grand Annual more than once in the last 10 years, but it does tend to go to a professional, rather than a claiming rider.

How did the trends do last year?

Global Citizen was a solid trends pick with only 10st 6lbs to carry, a placing last time out, two Grade 2 wins and only one chase win. He had also won two handicap hurdles on left-handed, galloping tracks, and run over fences and hurdles at Cheltenham, including at the Festival.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

No horse in the antepost betting hits all the trends at this time, but last year's eighth Il Ridoto has claims. His run in 2022 was a course debut aged only five for top Grand Annual trainer Paul Nicholls, there's plenty of scope for improvement, although he has been kept to 2m4f this season. So Scottish, a two-time novice chase winner for shrewd Irish connections, is also interesting, but aged only six would cause caution.

It's a watching brief until entries are revealed.