Stayers' Hurdle 2023 Trends

By Jessica Lamb  | 

Feb 5th, 2023 02:30 PM  |  3 mins

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2023 Stayers Hurdle Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Were aged between six and nine
• Had run at least twice in the last 12 months
• Had run in at least four hurdle races and won at least two
• Had won at least one Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle
• Last ran in a Graded hurdle (not a handicap)
• Last ran in a race at least 46 days ago - four ran in the Cleeve Hurdle

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Had three or more wins on a left-handed track
• Had eight or more runs over hurdles and at least three wins (expection More Of That was unbeaten in four outings)
• Had run at least twice that season (Penhill)
• Had run at Cheltenham before (Flooring Porter in 2021)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Finished in the first three last time out, including six winners and the last five winners. The exceptions fell (Nichols Canyon) and finished fourth in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cole Harden).
• Had run over 3m or further before - six won

Key Trials from the last 10 years

Four of the last 10 winners last ran in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (Cole Harden, Thistlecrack, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar). No trial has a better record in producing the winner of the Stayers' Hurdle and in 2023 the race was won by Gold Tweet.

The Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham has also proven a useful trial, with one winner and several placed finishers in the past 10 years. Marie's Rock won this season's renewal on New Year's Day.

Only one winner in the last 10 years had never run at Cheltenham before - Flooring Porter in 2021 - the others had all run at least once at the course, so it pays to look at all relevant Cheltenham hurdle races.

Flooring Porter, winner of the last two renewals, had last run in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown before both wins.

Trainer Trends

• Paul Nicholls has won the race four times, more than any other, but all wins were by his star staying hurdler Big Buck’s. The last of those victories came in 2012. Nicholls’ has had three placed horses since.
• Willie Mullins has won two of the last six Stayers' Hurdles, both winners being aged seven and bred in Britain. He's also had four placed horses in the past 12 years from 25 runners.

Jockey Trends

There are no notable jockey trends in the Stayers' Hurdle, though Danny Mullins has now won the last two on Flooring Porter.

How did the trends do last year?

The big snag for Flooring Porter on trends in 2021 was that he had never run at Cheltenham before. The only other horse to do this in the last 20 years was Baracouda in 2002. He was trained in France by Francois Doumen and was already a four-time Grade 1 winner.

Other than that, Flooring Porter ticked a lot of Stayers' Hurdle trends boxes, having won the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle last time out, had a good break before Cheltenham, and run in plenty of hurdle races.

Of course, when he came back to win in 2022, that one snag had been ironed out, and again he came into the race off the back off a good run at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Watch the #Racehour Stayers Hurdle Preview

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

Flooring Porter's lack of a win since his Cheltenham win was bothering last year, but he went on to win, so we can expect he will return to his best come March, having not raced since December - just like last season.

Gold Tweet entered the equation when winning the race's best trial, the Cleeve Hurdle. He's trained in France, like Baracouda, who won the Stayer's Hurdle in 2002 and 2003. Gold Tweet ticks all the boxes to emulate him.

The trends also pick out Gowran Grade 2 winner Teahupoo, the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle winner Home By The Lee and second Ashdale Bob, and Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle winner Marie's Rock, who could also run in the the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle.

Also a good fit on trends currently are the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle runner up Goshen, and last year's fifth Klassical Dream, who was beaten by Teahupoo last time out in the Hatton's Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.