Ultima Handicap Chase 2023 Trends

By Jessica Lamb  | 

Jan 21st, 2023 11:30 AM  |  4 mins

URL Copied!

2023 Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2023 edition of the Ultima Handicap Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this Grade 3 chase.

The last 10 winners:

• Were trained in Britain.
• Had won no more than four chases, the majority winning one or two.
• Had tasted victory over at least 3 miles over hurdles or fences.
• Had scored on a galloping track
• Had at least four starts in the previous 12 months
• Had run at Cheltenham before (seven of these winners had run over fences at Prestbury Park), with six winning.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Had at least five starts over fences (exception Un Temps Pour Tout had three before first win)
• Had taken part in at least one handicap chase; three of the last four winners had won more than one - Beware The Bear, Vintage Clouds and Corach Rambler
• Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts.
• Last ran no more than 59 days ago (exception Beware The Bear.
• Did not carry top weight. Finishing positions of last 10 topweights: 0443P3107FP. (exception Un Temps Pour Tout's second win)

Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas has thrown up two places in the last 10 years. Real Steel beat Dior Kel a short head in a blanket finish to the 2022 edition, where Panda Boy and Ain't That A Shame were next to finish.

Beware the Bear used the Ladbrokes Trophy as his trial in 2019. In 2022 the first four were Le Milos, Remastered, Gericault Roque and Corach Rambler, the third and fourth filling the top two spots in this Cheltenham race last year.

Last year's first and second, Corach Rambler and Gericault, finished fourth and second in the valuable Classic Chase at Warwick, which 2020 winner The Conditional was also placed in. It was won this year by Iwilldoit, beating a rare runner in the race from Willie Mullins, Mr Incredible. Notachance and Guetapan Collonges were next.

Oddly the Cleeve Hurdle has been seen to good effect as a trial for this race. The Cleeve Hurdle has produced two winners and two places in the last 10 years.

It's also a positive to have run in this race before or any other handicap chase at Cheltenham. Last year's winner Corach Rambler had won a handicap chase at the track in December, Vintage Clouds had been second in the Festival race in 2019, The Conditional had won a Cheltenham handicap chase in October, Beware The Bear had won one in January, Un Temps Pour Tout won twice, and before that had finished fourth at the track, The Druids Nephew had been second in November and Golden Chieftain had been third in December.

Trainer Trends

• The last 16 winners were trained in Britain. Only two winners were trained by trainers based in Ireland in the past 25 renewals. It's not a kind race to the raiding party!
• With three winners and six places each David Pipe and Jonjo O'Neill have the best record in the race.
• Nicky Henderson has a rather unlucky record with two winners and nine places over the last 22 years.
• Venetia Williams (one place from 22 starts), Paul Nicholls (four places from 22 starts) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (two places from 26 starts) are all trainers who have bad records in the race over the past 20 years.

Jockey Trends

• Tom Scudamore is more successful than any other jockey in the race in recent times, with three winners since 2008 (all for trainer David Pipe) and five places overall.
• Richie McLernon rides the race very well, with two winners (both for Jonjo O’Neill) and three places from seven rides.

How did the trends do last year?

Winner Corach Rambler was on the trends radar after winning a Cheltenham handicap chase, and fit the profile, with the Classic Chase run another key pointer.

He also fit the exposure trends, having won no more than two chases and run in five chases, including a handicap. He'd won multiple times over further than 3m too.

Second Gericault Roque and third Oscar Elite had not won a chase, or won over further than 2m. Fourth Tea Clipper had not run in a handicap or won over further than 2m3 1/3f.
 

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

This is usually a wide-open affair and ante-post lists indicate that is likely to again be the case in March 2023.

Cheltenham novice chase winner Threeunderthrufive has several wins over more than 3m and finished sixth in the Classic Chase last time out on his second handicap outing and first run since November.

That was heavy ground that did not suit. The snag is that his handicap rating is fairly lofty at 151, when last seen. Winners of this race tend to have no more than 145.

December Cheltenham handicap chase winner Eva's Oskar ticks a lot of boxes, but looks exposed with three handicap chase wins, ditto New Year's Day winner The Rapper.

Classic Chase winner Iwilldoit is also the Welsh National hero and looks as if this trip will be too short, but trends say the fourth and beaten favourite Guetepan Collonges is one to watch.

Coming into the race last year fifth Our Power had not won over further than 2m4f. In October he won a valuable handicap chase at Ascot over 3m putting him on the radar, though it's a worry the Sam Thomas-trained hope has not run since.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.