SUPER BOWL 54 TIPS:
|Mecole Hardman To Score A Touchdown Anytime
|Richard Sherman to win MVP
|Travis Kelce over 74.5 yards
|Over 2.5 Total Number of Players to have a pass attempt
|Mahomes over 37.5 rush yds & Garoppolo over 9.5 rush yards
|Correct Score: Chiefs win 27-24
Super Bowl week is finally upon us, meaning it’s time head over to some of the best bookmakers to have a slice of the action. ‘The Greatest Show On Turf’ offers punters an abundance of markets to choose from meaning you can bet on almost anything to happen from touchdown scorers and total yards to the length of the National Anthem and colour of the winning teams Gadorade shower.
The Kansas City Chiefs will make their long-awaited return to the Super Bowl when they take on the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami this Sunday night. The Chiefs - led by 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes - are marginal favourites heading into the tie at 4/5 with Betway on the moneyline.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are the bookmakers' underdogs at 11/10 with Bethard and have been given a 1.5 point cushion in the handicap betting, even though they actually finished with a better regular season record than the Chiefs - 13-3 to 12-4.
With that said, here are a few top tips for Super Bowl 54 courtesy of the Bookmakers.co.uk NFL experts Colm Phelan and @freeNFLTips.
Tip 1 - Mecole Hardman To Score A Touchdown Anytime - 7/2 with William Hill
Mecole Hardman personifies everything you need to know about the Chiefs offense - he’s fast. The Georgia alumni ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at last year’s combine and it’s his electric pace that makes Andy Reid’s team so scary, especially when combined with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson.
Hardman presents an exciting option to score a touchdown any time at the Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. The wide receiver, 21, has seen his touches steadily increase as the season went on as it became apparent he was one of the key cogs in the Andy Reid air-raid offense.
You have to imagine the 49ers defense will have their hands full with star tight-end Travis Kelce as well as Hill and Watkins, giving Hardman the potential opportunity to slip through the cracks and break off a score. He also has the added incentive of designed end-around plays to try and utilise his game-breaking speed. He’ll look to add to five regular season touchdowns this Sunday night and 7/2 anytime with William Hill is good value.
Hardman also returns kick-offs and punts, increasing his chances of finding paydirt. Be sure to check with your chosen bookie if they will pay out should this occur - some will credit this to special teams.
Tip 2 - Richard Sherman MVP - 80/1 with Unibet
Let me just preface this by saying that either Patrick Mahomes or Jimmy Garropolo will likely win the Super Bowl MVP award if history is anything to go by - but at 80/1 with Unibet I think Richard Sherman is worthy of a speculative play.
Sherman, who has been to two previous Super Bowls (one win, one loss), is statistically playing some of the best football of his career. He only allowed 27 receptions all year and just two in the postseason. Added to that, Sherman has two interceptions in the playoffs - the most of any defensive player.
If, and it’s a big if, the 49ers are going to win this game then it is going to need a colossal effort from their defensive stars. If Sherman were to lock down his side of the field and maybe grab an interception or Pick Six he would certainly be in the conversation for MVP.
It’s not often DBs win the award, but it has happened before. Dexter Jackson (safety, Buccaneers, 2003) and Larry Brown (cornerback, Cowboys, 1996) proved it’s not impossible during their respective Super Bowl wins. If 80/1 is too big for your liking, any defender at 11/2 with Unibet covers all your bases on that side of the ballgame.
Tip 3 - Race to 10 points - 49ers EVS BetVictor
One of the more enticing props is the race to 10 points. This market is exactly as described, with either team priced up to be the first to reach that milestone. The 49ers are the underdogs in this category, but given each side's recent history it could be a fruitful investment at EVENS with BetVictor.
The Chiefs have not started either playoff game well. They have conceded leads to both the Texans and Titans before going on pretty much unstoppable scoring runs. It appears to take a few drives before Mahomes and Co get in the groove.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers generally start well and control the ball with their run-happy offense. If they score first they can easily move the ball down the field again to get within field goal range at least at which point, Robbie Gould is one of the most experienced and reliable kickers in the game.
Tip 4 - Travis Kelce over 74.5 yards - 4/5 with Paddy Power
One of the mantras Kyle Shanahan and his coaching staff has instilled into his team is not to be beaten deep. This will prove especially difficult against the speed merchant Chiefs, which could open the door for Travis Kelce to have a field day in the middle of the field.
As if Kelce needs an excuse to have a big game. Against the Texans, he added three touchdowns to his 134 yards over 10 receptions. In the regular season, he topped his current line of 74.5 yards eight times, once coming half a yard short. He only twice recorded less than 50 yards in the regular season.
Against the Titans, Kelce only had three receptions for 30 yards, but I would have this performance down as an outlier. Expect Mahomes to target one of his favourite weapons early and often.
Tip 5 - Over 2.5 Total Number of Players to have a pass attempt – 6/5 with Grosvenor Sports
6/5 on three or more players to attempt a pass? Mahomes – check. Garoppolo – check. So we're getting 6/5 on any other player to toss it forwards.
The Chiefs allowed the Titans to successfully pull off a fake punt in the AFC Championship game, and Sammy Watkins has also been sacked in the playoffs while attempting some trickery.
The 49ers have previous too. Who can forget Emmanuel Sanders' touchdown pass to Raheem Mostert against the Saints earlier in the season?
With Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill likely to run their share of reverses and taking the ball in the backfield, it would be no surprise to see one of them try some razzle-dazzle. Grosvenor Sport's 6/5 on over 2.5 players to attempt a pass will give you a run for the whole game. They even double the odds on your first bet, with winnings paid in cash!
Tip 6 - Mahomes over 37.5 rush yds & Garoppolo over 9.5 rush yds - 7/1 with Boylesports
Courtesy of the Boylesports Bet Builder, which seems to be available on mobile only, after adding various selections to the betslip, this is the one I landed on.
Mahomes has shown no ill effects from his early-season knee injury, going for 53 rushing yards in each of this season's playoff games. With an army of 49ers defenders - including star rookie Nick Bosa - chasing him, he's very likely to have to scramble and could rip off a couple of big runs.
Garoppolo has had 10 rushing yards in a game just once this season and has an uninspiring -1 rushing yards in total in the playoffs. That said if there's a game he's likely to put everything on the line for, it's the Super Bowl. 10 yards is just one big run where the Chiefs D is in man coverage, leaving him to run to the sticks for a first down. At 7/1 with Boylesports, I'm happy to take that chance.
Tip 7 - Correct Score: Chiefs win 27-24 - 80/1 with Paddy Power
Backing the correct score in an NFL game isn't exactly easy. Apply all the logic you want and it could all go out the window with a missed PAT or a team going for a two point conversion because analytics say that's what they should do.
The handicap and point lines give an indicator of what should, in theory, be expected. With the Chiefs around two-point favourites and the total hovering at the 54 point mark, the theoretical score would be the Chiefs winning 28-26, or thereabouts.
The combination of scores needed by each team to get these exact point totals is complicated to say the least. Chiefs scoring three TDs, three PATs and two field goals while the 9ers score three TDs, three PATs and one field goal is a very reasonable expectation. It's also one which is around where the handicap and point total lines are set. A Chiefs 27-24 win can be backed at 80/1 with Paddy Power if you fancy a Hail Mary for the Super Bowl.