2022 Randox Grand National Trends

By Gavin Beech
 |  4 mins
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2022 Randox Grand National Trends

2022 Randox Grand National - Big Race Details

Date: Saturday, April 9th

Course: Aintree

Status: Grade 3 (Handicap)

Distance: 4m 2.5f (4m, 2f 74yds)

Age: 7yo+

Prize fund: £1,000,000 (£500,000 to the winner)

Live on: ITV and RacingTV at 5.15pm

Randox Grand National - Key Trends

  • Age range: Since the turn of the century, only one horse outside of the 8-11 age range has won the Grand National (Amberleigh House, 12, in 2004). The last six winners have been aged eight or nine.
  • Experience edge: Every winner in the last decade had already run at least ten times over fences.
  • KEY STAT - Avoid the long-layoffs: 28 of the last 29 winners ran within the previous 55 days, while 23 of the last 29 ran within 34 days!
  • National newbies: 11 of the last 13 Grand National winners were having their first run in this unique race.
  • Luck of the Irish: 16 of the last 21 winners were Irish-bred, although not necessarily trained in Ireland.
  • Mares don’t do well: 13 mares have won the Grand National but the last one was way back in 1951 - 71 years ago!
  • Watch out for hurdlers: 9 of the last 16 winners had run at least once over hurdles earlier that season.
  • Stamina sway: 27 of the last 30 Grand National winners had won at least one chase over three miles or further.
  • Graded performer: Since the turn of the century, every Grand National winner bar one had been at least placed in a Grade 3 contest or higher.

Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson has trained more winners than anyone at the three-day Aintree meeting (37) BUT the six-time champion trainer is still searching for his first Grand National winner. Zongalero, his first runner in the race in 1979, finished second and remains to this day the closest he has come to landing the big prize.

Gordon Elliott has won the race three times since 2007, including in 2019 and 2020 with Tiger Roll, and he has a strong squad for 2022.

Irish trainers have done particularly well in the race since the turn of the century, winning the race 11 times, including four of the last five.

High-profile British trainers like Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and David Pipe have all struck with a winner in recent years.

Jockey Trends

Rachael Blackmore became the first female rider to win the Grand National when she steered Minella Times to an emphatic success in 2021, but can her mount overcome a much higher rating this time around?

Davy Russell is the only jockey still riding to have won the race more than once and, with Gordon Elliott having such a strong hand this time around, a third success in the space of just four years cannot be ruled out.

2022 Randox Grand National - Which Horses Fit The Trends This year?

First things first - last year's winner Minella Times is bang up against it if he is going to follow up off a 15lb higher mark. He'll be carrying top weight and no horse has carried that to victory since Red Rum in 1974. Cross the reigning champ off your lists.

Five-time Grade 1-winning chaser Delta Work looks a fascinating contender having bounced back to something near his best to see off stablemate Tiger Roll in the Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

He fits all the key trends, is the right age and is trained by a man - Gordon Elliott - who knows what is required to win this race.

The question with him is simply, will one of his rivals be better handicapped? He is well worth his 160 rating but it means he’ll be carrying near top weight and that might just prove his undoing. He is rock-solid though.

Last year’s third Any Second Now has been strong in Grand National ante-post betting lists since the Cheltenham Festival but he’s 7lb higher this time so although he ran a cracker in the Bobbyjo Chase last time, he will need a career-best to go two places better.

The horse he beat in that Fairyhouse contest, Escaria Ten, has a lot going for him but he’s only run seven times over fences, which leaves him short on chasing experience.

If mares didn’t have such a poor record in the race, then Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess would make a fair bit of appeal. It’s unlikely we’ve seen the best of her in staying chases and she sneaks in here towards the bottom of the weights.

Rule The World won this race as a novice in 2016 so Run Wild Fred makes a fair bit of appeal if allowed to take his chance. He has the experience, the class and is Irish bred so fits the bill on the trends front.

However, it often pays to keep an eye on Grand National entries that have done some racing over hurdles that season as it indicates that connections have been looking to protect their handicap mark.

One such runner is Enjoy D’Allen who appears to have been campaigned with this race in mind all season. This 8-year-old fits all the key trends thanks to a three-mile point success and although he’s never raced over the Aintree fences, that has been no negative in recent years and he’s a really good jumper of a fence (never fallen), in any case.

He’s got Grand National experience having finished third in the 2021 Irish version and he seems to go on any ground. He looks the pick of the J P McManus contingent.

2022 Randox Grand National - Last 10 Winners

  • 2021 Minella Times (11/1) Trainer: Henry De Bromhead, Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
  • 2020 No Race
  • 2019 Tiger Roll (4/1F) Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2018 Tiger Roll (10/1) Trainer Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Davy Russell
  • 2017 One For Arthur (14/1) Trainer: Lucinda Russell, Jockey: Derek Fox
  • 2016 Rule The World (33/1) Trainer: M F Morris, Jockey: David Mullins
  • 2015 Many Clouds (25/1) Trainer: Oliver Sherwood, Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2014 Pineau De Re (25/1) Trainer: Dr Richard Newland, Jockey: Leighton Aspell
  • 2013 Auroras Encore (66/1) Trainer: Sue Smith, Jockey: Ryan Mania
  • 2012 Neptune Collonges (33/1) Trainer: Paul Nicholls, Jockey: Daryl Jacob
A veteran of two decades in the sports journalism industry, Gavin Beech is a very experienced horse racing writer, sports betting content producer and tipster for the likes of MailOnline, Gambling.com and the Racing Post. Not restricted to racing, he also writes about football.

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