|Inter Milan vs Empoli: Under 2.5 goals
|Atalanta vs Sassuolo: Atalanta to win & both teams to score
|SPAL vs AC Milan: AC Milan win & under 2.5 goals
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The final weekend of Serie A is upon us at last, and while Juventus may have sealed the league title over a month ago, there is still plenty of drama left to play out at both ends of Italian football’s top flight.
No fewer than four teams go into their last match in danger of being relegated as Genoa, Empoli, Udinese and – incredibly – Fiorentina arrive at this juncture with the fear of the drop hanging over their heads.
At the opposite end, three sides are battling for two Champions League berths, with minnows Atalanta hoping they can pip either Inter or AC Milan to that prestigious spot. They are playing some excellent football, but star man Papu Gomez puts their lofty position down to the work of Coach Gian Piero Gasperini.
“Since Gasperini arrived, our mentality has changed,” the Argentina international said at a press conference last week. “Before we only thought about staying up. Now we’re playing for much more important objectives. Atalanta are one of the best clubs in Italy, but perhaps without Gasperini none of this would’ve happened.”
Sitting third, they are well aware that their fate is in their own hands, while fifth-placed Milan know they need other results to go their way if the Rossoneri are to secure a return to UEFA’s elite competition. “We’re only one point behind Inter and Atalanta so anything is possible, but first we must beat SPAL,” striker Krzysztof Piatek told Sky Italia. “It’s a difficult time for us, but we believe in qualification for the Champions League.”
Let’s take a look at the matches involving those three teams and identify where the value is to be found in an intriguing set of fixtures that will also affect that aforementioned battle to avoid the drop into Serie B.
Expect Empoli To Make Inter’s Life Difficult
Inter are at something of a disadvantage this weekend, their opponents Empoli being the only one with anything left to play for. While the Milanese giants have to win to ensure a top four finish, the Tuscan side need to better Genoa’s result against Fiorentina to guarantee their safety, which is certain to make this clash at San Siro an extremely tense affair.
“Empoli will come to play their game,” Inter boss Luciano Spalletti said at a recent press conference. “We still see this as a fundamental match, it’s do or die, and we have to show the character, sharpness, clear heads and quality of a team that represents the city of Milan and must get back into the Champions League. That’s what you have to do if you play for this club.”
A notable point to add to that is that there have been under 2.5 goals scored in Inter's last six Serie A home games, the Nerazzurri boasting a surprisingly good defence that has kept the divisions best tally for clean sheets with 17.
With that solidity and the huge stakes for both sides, it is well worth considering backing under 2.5 goals in this contest, an outcome available at best-priced odds of 8/5 with BetVictor
Back Atalanta To Win
With their destiny in their own hands and the Coppa Italia final defeat to Lazio behind them, it is difficult to see Atalanta dropping points this weekend. With construction to rebuild their own ground already underway, they have arranged to play their final two home games of the season at Sassuolo, only for an odd twist of fate pitting them against the Neroverdi on Sunday.
That means Atalanta will nominally be the “home” side despite the game being held at their opponents’ Mapei Stadium home, but they are still heavily favoured. Gasperini’s men are unbeaten in their last 12 Serie A matches, while also boasting an impressive nine-game unbeaten run against Sassuolo.
The Bergamaschi boast the league’s most prolific attack this term, but have kept just nine clean sheets, which helps to uncover a good value option as BetVictor offer odds of 27/20 on an Atalanta win with both teams scoring.
AC Milan To Edge Out SPAL
AC Milan boast a proud record against SPAL, losing just once in 37 Serie A meetings with the Ferrara-based minnows and winning each of their last six encounters. The Rossoneri have not been playing well of late, but they have continued to grind out results, taking maximum points in their last three outings.
That success has been built upon a rock solid defence that has kept three clean sheets in the last four games, while there have been under 2.5 goals scored in five of Milan’s last six Serie A matches.
As a result, it is well worth considering a Milan win with under 2.5 goals scored, an outcome available at odds of 10/3 with Bet365